41/82

Shows What I Know...

One thing before I get into my mid-season musings...

I'll be the first to admit that my hockey knowledge, such as it is, is pretty much limited to what happens on the ice, between the opening faceoff and the final whistle. I am not particularly knowledgeable about the fine points of NHL contracts, collective bargaining agreements, and so on. As a sports fan, I pretty much am happy with the game itself. (When I am forced to stare at the other stuff, as during the lockout, I become grumpy).

Although I knew that Dimitri Patzold had to clear waivers when the Sharks sent him down to Worcester, I was under the impression that the Sharks would have had the right to pull him back up to the big club if any other team had put in a claim. (I'm not positive, but I believe there are circumstances in which this is possible under Major League Baseball's waiver system). From reading some of the articles on the Merc's website today, I guess that's not the case...if he would've been claimed, he would've been gone.

This is obviously a huge difference, and it changes my thinking about this situation (see previous, badly-informed post here). I'm now of the opinion that Thomas Greiss, who has been seeing the bulk of the action in Worcester, has been brought up to give Evgeni Nabokov the occasional spell. It might have been difficult to ask Patzold, who's seen only a handful of playing minutes and then only in games in which Nabokov has been pulled, to start. Greiss, although he's never played in the big league, at least ought to be reasonably sharp. Wait and see, I guess.


Muddling Through

In discussing the state of the team at the season's halfway point, I must necessarily continue a theme that I alluded to in my post about the Columbus game. Namely, the theme of "Exactly what do I expect?"

Who would I rather be? A Leafs fan (15-18-8 and in a tailspin, hanging on for dear life until Vesa Toskala returns?) A Tampa Bay Lightning fan (last place in the worst division in the league?) A Buffalo Sabres fan (major offseason losses after a conference finals appearance, now in eleventh place in the East, and in possession of a seven-game losing streak?) How can a Sharks fan complain when the only team we're looking up at is the Wings?

I cannot help but be pleased with San Jose's 52 points through 41 games. But I'm still nervous, and a look at the numbers is instructive in trying to understand why.

As of this writing, the Sharks are tied for the second-best goals-against average in the league with Vancouver (2.14). On the other hand, they are eighth from the bottom in goals per game (2.47). And that pretty much says it all--the Sharks are playing extremely well defensively, but they've been struggling to score.

The two leading goal-scorers from last year, Jonathan Cheechoo and Patrick Marleau, are sitting on five and seven goals, respectively. They both have less goals for San Jose this year than Devin Setoguchi, who is currently skating for Worcester. Sharks defensemen, combined, have nine goals so far this year. Chris Pronger has nine goals so far this year by himself. (Montreal blueliner Andrei Markov has eleven).

If Cheechoo were on pace to match his goal total from last year, he would have eighteen goals at this point. Marleau would have sixteen. That's a 22-goal delta from where they actually are. If San Jose had twenty-two more goals as of January 9, 2008, they would be sixth in the league in terms of raw goals scored, ahead of Dallas (125) but still behind the Canadiens (128).

The point of the preceding isn't really to pick on Cheechoo and Marleau--they've been hammered sufficiently. It's to point out that this isn't a team that's designed to eke out wins by the score of 2.5 to 2.0. A lot of teams have been successful winning in just that way, especially in the several years pre-lockout, but I think a lot of us really expected this squad to blow the doors off people, to the point that we would be speaking about them in the same breath as the Wings. Certainly the hockey writers (and there were a good number) who picked San Jose to win it all this year expected a different team than the one we're seeing.

And therein lies the anxiety. As much as I like the 23-12-6 record, little of what's happening on offense seems very sustainable. I feel as though the team's attack is chugging along like a four-engine airplane with two starboard burnouts, tattered control surfaces, and leaky hydraulics--yes, we're in the air, but for how long? Two-goal games from Patrick Rissmiller (vs. Columbus) and big goals from Kyle McLaren (vs. Minnesota) are great, but can't be expected to last. A ten-game away winning streak is great, but that kind of road success can't be expected to persist. What happens when all of that goes away?

I don't know, maybe it won't. Can the team continue to rack up wins this way? With a goal by Craig Rivet here, a goal by Roenick there, whatever? I guess it's not impossible, if Nabby continues to shine in net, the penalty kill continues to rock (huge first-half kudos to Mike Grier and Curtis Brown on that--they're doing their jobs) and the team continues to play great defense in general.

But I don't like the odds. Ultimately, in order for the Sharks to be the Stanley Cup contenders that they really ought to be, someone (or sometwo or somethree) is going to have to emerge as primary scoring. Someone other than Joe Thornton--he's been even better than usual this year, but his magic is primarily as a setup man, and he can't be asked to carry the goal-scoring load as well. It doesn't have to be Cheechoo or Marleau, either--it can be Steve Bernier and/or Milan Michalek and/or Torrey Mitchell and/or whoever. If the Sharks hoist the Cup and Jonathan Cheechoo winds up with nine goals for the season, I won't complain.

To end the post on a positive note, I'll again note The Facts of the Case. 23-12-6. Fifty-two points. First in the Pacific. Second in the West. And that's with all the offensive woes I've bemoaned above.

If someone (or sometwo or somethree) in teal finds the scoring touch, this team could really make some hay.